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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 16, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0199. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-1.0112-1.0199.

Supports:

- 1.0056 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9968 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9910-08 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 0.9825 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0051.

Resistances:

- 1.0402 = .50 ret
- 1.0484 = .618 ret


Performed by Roman Molodiashin,
Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 3, 2011

GBP/JPY is moving down within impulse wave C (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. Within this wave we have five subwaves (colored red in the chart), and subwave 5 is developing from 119.99. The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-121.54-122.21, 122.21-119.21-119.99.
Supports:
- 118.14 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 117.80 = COP
- 116.99 = objective point (OP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-20 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January 3, 2012


During the first working day of the year the new markets return to their normal condition on Tuesday, this greatly promotes the leading currencies and mostly the American dollar.


The dollar experienced weak trend during first hours of session and fell on all fronts, especially against the euro, the pound and the Swiss franc. The same thing happened to the Australian dollar and to the Canadian dollar.
The news about jobs in Germany, particularly the changes in number of people unemployed for December 2011, triggered the upward movement of the euro, which was accompanied by other major currencies.
Meanwhile, when averaging the European session on Tuesday, the stocks of the old continent showed mixed results. The DAX 30 gained 0.8%, while other major indices fell on the average by 0.6%.


As for the Dow Jones, the index futures were rising opening the week that has left an important gap and it will probably be covered within the next few hours, and at the American session.


Indeed, at 10:00 the publication of the ISM manufacturing in the United States is expected, and at 2:15 the Minutes of the last FOMC meeting, which took place last month, will be announced.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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Wave Analysis of EUR/USD for January 3, 2012






Analysis of the wave marking:
Due to the holidays season yesterday’s session EUR/USD overall wave stance did not alter significantly. Thus the price moved in a very narrow price range above the rate of the 29th figure. Meanwhile the formed wave structure still allows for a possible development of the marked prolonged upside correction as well as a chance for the pair to renew the decline to the next target rate for the 3rd wave (in the 5th) which corresponds to the mark of 1.2760-1.2750. At the same time we should pay attention to that if this target is hit in the nearest future the inner wave marking of the 5th wave in the 3rd would probably need to be slightly adjusted.

The targets of the correctional movement:
1.3023 – 161.8% Fibo
1.3080 – 127.2% Fibo

The targets for the 3rd wave in the 5th:
1.2858 – 261.8% Fibo

General recommendations:
On Tuesday the correction continues amid the decline over the last two days of 2011.
The fact that the price is still within the declining range points at the continuation of the downfalling trends’ part. The current situation is that the inner wave marking of the assumed third wave in the fifth is ambiguous and hardly possible. That is why uncertainty is high regarding not only the direction of the trend but the wave marking of this movement.
The MACD divergence indicates a possible rebound from the current levels in the direction of new lows and in particular to 1.2858, which corresponds to 261.8% Fibo/ on the other hand, the exit from a narrower declining range can complicate the current correction in the direction to 1.3080, that corresponds to 127.2% Fibo.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 4, 2011

AUD/USD finally broke above 1.0379, and now is developing impulse wave C of a medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), subwave C is developing from 1.0044. On still smaller levels we have A, B and C subwaves (colored red in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 is developing from 1.0386 against the uptrend. The immediate resistances are Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0268-1.0197, 1.0197-1.0386-1.0322.
Resistances:
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0421 = OP
- 1.0439 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0511 = OP
If the price reverses to the downside the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0197-1.0386.
Supports:
- 1.0314 = .382 retracement
- 1.0292 = .50 ret
- 1.0269 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0197 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (15-20 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (40-55 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 4, 2011

GBP/JPY has just developed impulse subwave A (colored magenta in the chart) that is part of impulse wave C of larger degree (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71. Now potential corrective subwave B is developing from 118.94. The targets of this wave are Fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret
- 121.90 = .786 ret
However, if the price reverses to the downside from 120.14, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14.
Supports:
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving up it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets below the zero level (10-15 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (45-60 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 5, 2011

AUD/USD is trading within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend from 0.9861 (colored light green in the chart). In this wave we have A, B and C subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), subwave C is developing from 1.0044. Within the latter C there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart). And the targets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0044-1.0386, 1.0197-1.0386, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0304-1.0372.
Immediate supports:
- 1.0292-90 = confluence area of .50 retracement and objective point (OP)
- 1.0269 = .618 ret
- 1.0255 = .382 ret
- 1.0239 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0215 = .50 ret
If the price breaks above 1.0386 and continues moving upwards, the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 0.9663-1.0379-0.9861, 0.9861-1.0218-1.0044, 1.0044-1.0386-1.0304.
Resistances:
- 1.0401 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0515 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0577 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
Since the larger wave is now moving up, it's preferable to try long positions until the price breaks below 1.0304 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (current prices) or into the oversold area (20-30 pips below the current prices), watch for entries long at or near the indicated supports.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 5, 2011

GBP/JPY is trading within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart), and within this wave we have corrective subwave B (colored magenta in the chart), that is developing from 118.94. The targets of the potential corrective wave are fibonacci retracements of 122.71-118.94.
Resistances:
- 120.38 = .382 retracement
- 120.82 = .50 ret
- 121.27 = .618 ret
- 121.90 = .786 ret
But if the price reverses to the downside from 120.14, the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14, 120.14-119.54-119.93.
Supports:
- 119.56-54 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .50 ret
- 119.40 = .618 ret
- 119.33 = objective point (OP)
- 119.20 = .786 ret
- 118.96 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 118.36 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)

Overbought/Oversold
Assuming that the major wave is now moving down it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis for January 5, 2012


A few hours ago the euro hit a new low since September 2010 against the U.S. dollar and pound sterling, rising to a new default versions of European countries.
To the question of Greece, which adjustment plan to prevent total collapse has been developed with a great difficulty and debt problems in Italy and Spain, which must pay increasingly expensive to finance its deficits, France also had to accept increased cost of bond issues on the morning of Thursday. This resulted in the acceleration of the euro fall on all fronts.
Lowering against the pound is remarkable. While its junction with the dollar suffers the vicissitudes logic supply and demand, but not to other currencies as it reflects the general weakness of the single currency.
Thus, the crossing EUR/GBP falls to its lowest since September 9, 2010, and is close to 0.8170, where it has a solid support. And against the yen, the euro is playing lows (at least from its effective date, exactly 10 years). Sure, in 2002, the USD/JPY area exceeded 135, and the euro, newborn was below parity against the dollar. The figures are the same, but times have changed...
The market takes interesting edges in these circumstances. As Europe seeks to demonstrate how bad that is going to all its members, and continues to commit blunders through his troubled and greedy leaders, other countries show a different picture.
Oil, a true reflection of the global economy, does not fall from $100, after a slumber in the range of 80 to $ 90 for much of 2011. And this high value of the barrel is reflected in the Canadian dollar, which represents a nation whose main problem seems to be a resident of the United States, especially when this goes wrong, but it also represents its main advantage in favorable circumstances.
The Loonie's exchange rate against other leading currencies reflects the strength of the Canadian economy, and in all cases the Bank of Canada is closely monitoring its currency, to avoid uncomfortable insights.
Something similar happens in Australia, where the Ozzie mirrors not only the price of an ounce of gold, but also of economic strength based on strong exports to China, a country which has the privilege of having a neighbor.
The final hours ever put more black and white these situations, and the coins show clearly the reality of each country, and in the case of the euro, the entire eurozone.
The bags of the old continent operate at a loss, moderate, but losses to end in some cases exceeding 1.4% on average. The same happens with the Dow Jones index futures, which had started the week with a major increase, leaving a gap that invariably go to cover, bringing down major currencies.



Within minutes you will know the relevant data first year: the ADP survey of job creation in the U.S. in December. The previous talk about 176,000 new private sector jobs compared with 206,000 in November. But these figures are subject to revision, and there is that it should await the publication of the data to take action in the market.
Also know the weekly unemployment requests, at 8:30 Eastern, and the ISM service, another key figure, at 10:00.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis for January 6, 2012


Arrives the key day of the week, the first Friday of the month is known for the December jobs data U.S.A.
And while many celebrate in advance a very good figure, on Thursday after publication of an increase of 325 private jobs, it is desirable to retain cautious.
Moreover, it is believed that the unemployment rate could rise again, after his abrupt and healthy low last month.
What is the truth? We will see in a few hours, promptly at 8:30 Eastern. What is tangible and certain is that the world's largest economy has improved and the employment variable, basic and fundamental.
The market, in the hours prior to the report, show the same behavior every month, virtually no movement, and short-term trends are the same as during the previous day.
Expect strong motion data at the time of employment. In this context, the dollar remains strong against most leading currencies, with emphasis on the intersection EUR / USD, which has a strong downtrend.
Also the British pound has fallen deeper than usually on Thursday, and it acted especially low versus the yen.
At the moment, we only have to wait for the release of employment data, and then see the interpretation thereof by investors on Wall Street. At the opening will be the first reaction, and after noon in New York there will be the definitive trends of the day. In any case, we should remember that, for example, the euro tends to close the day against the dollar in the same area where they traded before the report.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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NATURAL GAS (#NG) Time to Buy January 6, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)






NATURAL GAS



Natural gas futures are trading at $3,014 per million British thermal units during the American session, trading at a very small range, we have a very strong support - 2.937. At this time I recommend you to buy, because the macroeconomic indicators show a possible increase in the price of natural gas.
If you look at the chart, natural gas has left a gap in the week of December 12, there can be a close of that gap before the pair continues its downward trend. Thus we will place short-term in the weekly resistance of 3,383.
On the other hand, the Momentum indicator and range are showing oversold, signaling a possible rebound.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]


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CRUDE OIL (#CL) Buy Long Above 97.90, January 6, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)




CRUDE OIL



Crude oil futures for February delivery are quoted at USD 102.28 per barrel during the American session, retreating by 0.85% from its maximum at 103.71 on Wednesday.
On the weekly chart with the technical analysis, we noticed that the oil maintains its upward trend, although showing signs of overbought, we believe that the trend of increased oil prices will continue, but first must have a reversal at least at the level of 97, 90 dollars per barrel of oil. We should place upward resistance at the next monthly 107.80 dollars per barrel.
Indicator of Momentum is the area of 100 showing a possible correction in the price of oil.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 9, 2011

AUD/USD is developing impulse wave A of medium term downtrend from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave we have 5 subwaves (colored orange red in the chart) with subwave 5 developing from 1.0273. Now the targets of the downmove are calculated using Fibonacci expansions off 1.0386-1.0304-1.0372 (subwaves 1 and 2), 1.0372-1.0205-1.0273 (subwaves 3-4), 1.0273-1.0201-1.0242 (subwaves A and B within wave 5).
Supports:
- 1.0157 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 1.0126 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0106 = objective point (OP)
- 1.0054 = SXOP
- 1.0003 = XOP
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 1.0386 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions until the price breaks above 1.0242 and when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-35 pips above the current prices), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 9, 2011

GBP/JPY is still moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71, and in this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart) with impulse subwave C still developing from 120.14.
The targets of the decline are Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14, 120.14-119.12-119.68.
Supports:
- 118.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 117.01 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 116.37 = objective point (OP)
If the price keeps advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 120.14-118.20.
Resistances:
- 118.94 = .382 retracement
- 119.17 = .50 ret
- 119.40 = .618 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 10, 2011

AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale this wave consists of subwaves A and B (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 1.0145.
Now the targets of the upmove are calculated using Fibonacci retracements of 1.0386-1.0145, and expansions off 1.0145-1.0244-1.0193 (subwaves A and B - colored yellow in the chart).
Resistances:
- 1.0334 = .786 retracement
- 1.0353 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0452 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
If the price resumes the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave up from 1.0145 - this wave is not developed yet, so no supports are available.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (current prices as well), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 10, 2011

GBP/JPY is developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71, and within this wave we have three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave 4 that is developing against the downtrend from 118.20.
The resistances above are Fibonacci retracements of 120.14-118.20, 119.68-118.20, and expansions off 118.20-118.81-118.47.
Resistances:
- 118.85 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 118.94 = confluence area of .382 and .50 retracements
- 119.08-11 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 retracement
- 119.17 = .50 ret
- 119.36 = .786 ret
If the price keeps declining the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14, 120.14-119.12-119.68.
Supports:
- 118.03 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of two contracted objective points (COP)
- 117.01 = super expanded objective point (SXOP)
- 116.37 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-30 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 11, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). Inside this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 1.0145. Subwave B of still smaller degree (colored red in the chart) is developing from 1.0351.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0351, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0351.
Supports:
- 1.0272 = .382 retracement
- 1.0248 = .50 ret
- 1.0224 = .618 ret
- 1.0202 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0189 = .786 ret
- 1.0110 = objective point (OP)
If the reverses to the upside and starts advancing the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145.
Resistances:
- 1.0356 = COP
- 1.0487 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is going down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions before 1.0351 is broken to the upside and when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (35-50 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 11, 2011

GBP/JPY is trading within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) from 122.71, and inside this wave there are three subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and potential corrective subwave A that is developing against the downtrend from 118.20.
The resistances above are Fibonacci retracements of 120.14-118.20.
Resistances:
- 119.17 = .50 retracement
- 119.40 = .618 ret
- 119.72 = .786 ret
If the price resumes the downtrend the immediate supports will be Fibonacci expansions off 127.25-119.31-122.71, 122.71-118.94-120.14, 120.14-118.20-119.01.
Supports:
- 117.81-80 = confluence area of three contracted objective points (COP)
- 117.07 = objective point (OP)

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (10-15 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (25-35 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

The USD/JPY technical analysis and trading recommendations for January 11, 2012






Overview:
According to the analysis of the yen on Forex market, the upside correction might become a trend movement; the sell signal is being observed, however in the nearest time the price might enter the Ichimoku Cloud. The signal is strong and not confirmed, since the Chinkou Span fixated above the price graph and the price is below the Ichimoku cloud. At the moment the first target of the downside movement is 76.59 – the first support level. If this level is passed the second target will be the second support level at 76.23. Downside movement remains while the price is below the Kijun-sen (77.00). The Chinkou Span is above the price graph, which does not confirm the buy signal and indicates bearish sentiment. The Bollinger bands show the continuing upside movement, the lines diverging and directed up, which denotes possible upside trend movement, contradicting with Ichimoku. The MACD is ascending, which indicates current correction against the sell signal, therefore it is recommended to enter the market below the 76.59 level.
Trading recommendations:
Currently it is recommended to wait until the price passes 76.59 and consider buying with target at 76.23. Stop Loss should be placed above 77.00. When opening short positions the MACD must show downside movement. Take profit should be placed at 76.25 and moved to non-loss zone after the price moves 30-40 pips.





In addition to technical image, one should take into account the fundamental data and the time of their release.

Chart annotation:
Ichimoku indicator:
Tenkan-sen — red line
Kijun-Sen — blue line
Senkou Span A — light brown stipple line
Senkou Span B — light purple stipple line
Chinkou Span — green line
Bollinger Bands indicator:
3 yellow lines
MACD indicator:
The red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 12, 2011

AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale inside this wave there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), with subwave B still developing from 1.0145. Subwave C of still smaller degree (colored red in the chart) is developing from 1.0262.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements of 1.0145-1.0351, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0351, 1.0351-1.0262-1.0316.
Supports:
- 1.0261 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0248 = .50 ret
- 1.0227-24 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .618 ret
- 1.0202 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0189 = .786 ret
- 1.0172 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0110 = objective point (OP)
If the pair reverses to the upside and breaks above 1.0351 the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0351-1.0262.
Resistances:
- 1.0356 = COP
- 1.0389 = COP
- 1.0468 = OP
- 1.0487 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down, therefore it's preferable to try short positions before 1.0351 is broken to the upside and when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (30-40 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 12, 2011

GBP/JPY is still developing impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) that started from 122.71, and inside this wave on smaller scale there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is developing from 119.05. This wave has been confirmed as it broke below the top of wave A - 118.20.
The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 122.71-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.66-117.83.
Supports:
- 116.95 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.44 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.58 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of the wave down from 119.05 - this wave is not developed yet, so no resistances are available so far.

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (15-25 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012
More analysis at instaforex.com

Fundamental Analysis, January, 13 / 2012


After the presentation on Thursday the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, the markets were filled with, for us, unfounded optimism that led the New York Stock Exchange to raise positions at the end of your session, and the European currencies to gain ground against the dollar.

This "wave" has been distorted in the last hours, and the euro fell back below 1.28, with the pound sterling, which has been shown after weaker than the euro in recent days, falling well high speed.

Unlike the case of the Australian dollar, which yields 1.03, favored by the rise of an ounce of gold, but has resumed an upward trend does not seem to sustain over time. We believe that gold could fall to the area of �‹�‹$ 1530 per ounce before making a long-term bullish direction.

Meanwhile, oil is recomposed after a negative day, which was not poured by the tension which exists in several of the major producers.

Request data weekly U.S. unemployment, which rose far above expectations this week, along with a disappointing 0.1% increase in retail sales, gave impetus to the bottom of the barrel, which is listed at the time to less than $ 100.

This explains, in part, lower than yesterday also observed in the Canadian dollar, which is recomposed slowly right now.

Today the U.S. economy will again test: will be announced in December's trade balance, no major changes planned, at 8:30 Eastern, and the preliminary index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan / Reuters, at 9: 55, which are the most important economic data of the day.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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USD/CHF Bearish Outlook, For January 13, 2012 (weekly Strategy)






The United States dollar – Swiss Franc pair, in the 4 hours chart, We notice a formation technique, double top, with a potential drop to the nearest 0.9377 fractal, this level coincides with the 200-day moving average, which maintains the upward trend of the pair at this level also abut the first support weekly. However, a strengthening of the franc could reach the level of 0.9200 dollars per Swiss franc

Momentum indicator, RSI shows a level of neutrality is expected back up and then a fall.



Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 16, 2012

GGBP/JPY is moving within impulse wave C of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart) that started from 122.71, and inside this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart), and impulse subwave C is still moving from 119.05. This wave has been confirmed as it broke below the top of wave A - 118.20.
The immediate supports are Fibonacci expansions off 120.14-118.20-119.05, 122.71-118.20-119.05, 119.05-117.45-118.13.
Supports:
- 117.14-11 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP)
- 116.53 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = COP
- 115.91 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the price reverses to the upside the targets above will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.05-117.22.
Resistances:
- 117.92 = .382 retracement
- 118.13 = .50 ret
- 118.35 = .618 ret
- 118.66 = .786 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (10-20 pips above the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
[url=instaforex.com/articles]More analysis at instaforex.com[/url]

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 16, 2012

AUD/USD is now moving within wave A of medium term downtrend that started from 1.0386 (colored light green in the chart). On smaller scale there are A and B subwaves (colored magenta in the chart), and potential subwave C is developing from 1.0377.
The targets below are Fibonacci retracements 1.0145-1.0377, and expansions off 1.0386-1.0145-1.0377, 1.0377-1.0289-1.0367, 1.0367-1.0231-1.0333.
Supports:
- 1.0249 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 1.0228-25 = confluence area of COP and expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0197-95 = confluence area of objective point (OP) and .786 retracement
If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci expansions off 1.0044-1.0386-1.0145, 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231.
Resistances:
- 1.0374 = COP
- 1.0463 = OP
- 1.0487 = OP

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is moving down (until 1.0386 is broken to the upside), therefore it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes above the zero level (current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current), watch for entries short at or near the indicated resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
[url=instaforex.com/articles]More analysis at instaforex.com[/url]

GBP/JPY Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 17, 2012

The pair is now trading in a narrow flat that according to wave count is subwave B (colored magenta in the chart - started at 117.22) of impulse wave C (colored royal blue in the chart - started at 119.05). Within the corrective wave B we have subwaves A, B, and C (colored yellow in the chart), with subwave C still developing from 117.31. Since the flat is very narrow we can expect a sharp break through either to bullish or to bearish side. Bearish is preferable since we're in a downtrend. In this case we'll have subwave C (the magenta wave) in impulse wave C (the royal blue one).
The targets below will be Fibonacci expansions off 120.14-118.20-119.05, 122.71-118.20-119.05.
Supports:
- 117.11 = objective point (OP)
- 116.26 = contracted (COP)
- 115.91 = expanded objective point (XOP)
If the corrective wave up resumes the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 119.05-117.22, and expansions off A and B subwaves (the yellow ones) 117.22-117.88-117.31.
Resistances:
- 117.92-97 = confluence area of .382 retracement and OP
- 118.18 = .50 ret
- 118.35-38 = .618 ret and XOP
- 118.66 = .786 ret

Overbought/Oversold
The bigger wave is now moving down, so it's preferable to try short positions when the Detrended Oscillator gets above the zero level (5-10 pips above the current prices) or into the overbought area (20-30 pips above the current prices). Watch for entries short at the indicated Fibonacci resistances.

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis at instaforex.com

AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for January 17, 2012

AUD/USD broke above 1.0386 and switched the trend to the bullish. As far as the wave structure is concerned, the pair is moving within impulse wave C of medium term uptrend (colored mangenta in the chart) that started from 1.0231. Notice that it is almost precisely 0.618 Fib support calculated from wave A 1.0145-1.0377.
Wave C that is developing now has its subwaves (colored orange red and yellow in the chart) - A, B, C, and still smaller A, B, and C that is developing from 1.0302 - the one that broke above 1.0386. A-B-C cycles are the waves we calculate Fibonacci expansions off.
The targets above are Fibonacci expansions off 1.0145-1.0377-1.0231, 1.0231-1.0333-1.0254, 1.0254-1.0337-1.0302.
Resistances:
- 1.0419 = expanded objective point (XOP)
- 1.0436 = XOP
- 1.0463 = objective point (OP)
Since the trend is bullish we are interested in supports, that can be used as our long entries. However now, as the wave up is not yet developed, we can not calculate any supports until the price reverses down considerably enough to project Fib retracements from the wave that started at 1.0231.

Overbought/Oversold
The larger wave is now moving up, therefore it's preferable to try long positions when the Detrended Oscillator goes below the zero level (25-30 pips below the current prices) or into the oversold area (50-65 pips below the current prices).

Performed by Roman Molodiashin, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
More analysis at instaforex.com