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AUD/USD Elliott wave count and Fibonacci levels for November 16, 2011

AUD/USD is developing wave A of medium term downtrend (colored light green in the chart). Within this wave there are three subwaves (colored royal blue in the chart) with potential subwave C still developing from 1.0343. Within the latter wave C there are also waves A, B and C (colored red in the chart) with subwave C still developing from 1.0199. The tragets of the downmove are Fibonacci retracements of 0.9387-1.0752, and expansions off 1.0752-1.0051-1.0343, 1.0343-1.0112-1.0199.

Supports:

- 1.0056 = contracted objective point (COP)
- 0.9968 = objective point (OP)
- 0.9910-08 = confluence area of contracted objective point (COP) and .618 ret
- 0.9825 = expanded objective point (XOP)

If the price reverses to the upside the immediate resistances will be Fibonacci retracements of 1.0752-1.0051.

Resistances:

- 1.0402 = .50 ret
- 1.0484 = .618 ret


Performed by Roman Molodiashin,
Analytical expert InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2011
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Fundamental Analysis, February 02, 2012




The debt situation in Greece has reached its deadlock even from an optimistic point of view, considering that some investors worry about the future of the euro.



According to the data released by ADP, the number of jobs created across the Atlantic region was lower than expected, but still significantly higher than in previous months.

Friday will become a real trial, as the employment data released by the Labor Department caused significant movements in the USD pairs movement.

With the respective European currencies we can observe the moderate upward trends. Presently the yen stands in the focus as it is approaching again the record high against the dollar. As the Bank of Japan stated before, it will not intervene in the exchange rate or take some emergency measure that prove to be ineffective over time with little impact in early hours.

It is necessary to mention the decreased oil prices. WTI barrel is lower than $ 100 and is trading at 96.83 at the moment. But there is no significant impact on their currencies, namely the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.

Meanwhile, Gold remains above $ 1740 per ounce, which in turn initiates the upward movemen of the Australian dollar approaching the area of the 1.07 level.

Concerning the time of news release, the weekly unemployment requests, which will be announced at 8:30 EST and the presentation of the Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke in Congress at 10:00, will be the key events for Thursday’s U.S. trading session.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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EUR/USD Bearish Outlook for February 2, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/USD



The EUR/USD pair is trading at 1.3108 level indicating an upward trend. It remains in the overbuy zone despite the short-term uptrend breakdown. The weekly pivot line and the moving average of 50 periods are considered the support levels. At these levels SELL-deals are recommended. Otherwise it will be possible to wait until the end of the week: if the pair continues the ascending movement, we can enter the market and gain a profit by making the short-term deals till the second weekly pivot 1.2748 is reached.



On the other hand, the Momentum indicator is in overbought area indicating the bearish signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis for February 3, 2012




The recovery of the U.S. economy on Friday has a litmus test in its most sensitive variable: the creation of jobs during the month of January.
According to previous estimates, is expected to have generated about 150,000 jobs last month, a figure much lower than in December, which in any case is subject to revision.
This fact remains, despite its ups and downs, the most important of the month, and takes effect during the coming weeks. The rate of unemployment, which President Obama obsessively fixed his attention, for re-election in November, would be unchanged at 8.5%. Both reports will be published as usual, at 8:30 Eastern.
At 10:00 ISM services will be announced, which could increase this month strongly compared to the previous measurement, endorsing a good number of jobs created, if this indeed is confirmed.
In any case, as we repeat every month, it is always best to wait until the effects dissipate jobs data and the different currency pairs take a definite trend, before entering the market. This type of data often leads to sudden movements in prices, which leveraged markets can have a devastating effect.
Remember this is a market, not a game of chance, and win in the marketplace responds to a good analysis of it, many hours of work, and not a simple riddle of who is right price direction at a given time.
Averaging the European session on Friday, major indexes of the old continent operate with gains of 0.3% on average, while Dow Jones futures show an uptrend in the short term. The same could be confirmed if the data of U.S. employment is positive.
As for currencies, have no relevant movements, as usual in the hours leading up to major reports. The major pairs’ prices have hardly changed since the close of U.S. session on Thursday, and is not expected to change until publication of the jobs report.
To take into account: the Swiss National Bank said, as did the Bank of Japan, who will defend the exchange rate of the franc to 1.20 against the euro as often as necessary. In other words, is imminent intervention of the franc against the euro, and therefore against the dollar. On the side of the BoJ, the situation is similar, and a movement towards 75.55 yen alarms turn ON the intervention. The exchange rate EUR / CHF is 1.2047 at the time, just a few points above the barrier set by the SNB.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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NZD/USD Strong Resistance at 0.8385 (Daily Strategy)






NZD/USD

The New Zealand Dollar - U.S. dollar pair correlates with the stock markets around the world and the index level of fear marks a sharp decline in investor concerns.

At the technical level we see a marked upward trend, the pair has been detained by the second weekly resistance 0.8385, given that today is a weekend, there are fundamental data on the U.S. economy. It is important to take precautions due to market volatility.


We recommend you sell in (R_2) weekly. with a short-term objective 0.8178, just at the level of the uptrend line.

The Momentum indicator has entered into overbought area, there may be a change in trend.






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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Fundamental Analysis, February, 10 / 2012




Everything happened in the last 24 hours in Europe, although its purpose if it is not announced, the less predictable: the rescue of Greece was delayed further by the European Union.

Such is the lack of political will, lack of leadership and the inability of all stakeholders, that is noticeable from a distance and in advance that things go wrong.

If everything was agreed on Monday, why everything was postponed two days? If sending money as part of bailout plan depended on the adoption by Greece of the measures of "austerity" and other euphemisms, and this actually happened, what is the problem now?

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranty of any kind, which to date has not yet taken the debt at a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows, and mistrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

In addition, the Union appears to act for public order problems, not solve, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met .

The answer is simple: Greece makes no warranties of any kind-which until now did not yet taken the debt to a very low cost, and the rest of Europe knows it, and distrust of a debtor who has always failed their commitments.

Moreover, the Union appears to act for the public and not to solve problems, to take the moral high ground and almost extortion, raising the conditions imposed whenever the above are met.

To keep this state of affairs, it is likely that Europe will eventually send 14,400 million euros Greece needs it or do pay next month to avoid falling into default, and this game will continue indefinitely until the Greeks give up. That's the next step in sight.

Markets accounted for a further disappointment on this issue, and Friday's European session presents sharp drops in all major markets, while the euro fell as far away from 1.3320, the highest on Thursday and in recent weeks.

Yield also, albeit much weaker, pound sterling, whose medium-term uptrend has been breached, but without further confirmation to the breakdown of it, and the Australian dollar and Canadian.

The feeling is that it will generate a further fall in all leading currencies against the dollar, and that this will take hold, to varying degrees, but with special emphasis to the euro and the currencies linked to gold and oil.

The day's news agenda includes trade balance figures in Canada and the United States, both at 8:30 Eastern, and the consumer confidence index from the University of Michigan / Reuters


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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Fundamental Analysis, For February 17 / 2012




Exit a week in which little has been done in Europe to revive Greece and solve the problem of debt.

As in several months, taking meetings and summits, conferences, warnings and even threats. It has called on Greece to impose very harsh adjustment plans, which he did. But no sign of an agreement committing their future.

It's simple. In light of the public, no one can be exposed to the best deal for Europe is that Greece abandon the euro area. But it's the truth. Then look further complicate the situation in the country Hellene changing conditions that are necessary to send money to save their collapse.

Greece, who since joining the euro area had a policy on waste of resources and political patronage, through the support of whom the request and falsified statistics to enter it now appears as the only culprit in this situation.

But did all of Europe that, and so did the banks and rating agencies, whose task is to investigate and advise, and seems to have discovered too late that Greece was not perhaps the best destinations for investment.

So the intermediate output, which appeared in these days is to approve aid for Greece, but to delay implementation until the elections scheduled for april. Before, of course, you will receive 14.4 billion euros, payable on 20 in March. The worst solution, doing things by little, without conviction, and courage will deliver both partners: Europe to send money that you know will never recover, and Greece in the euro zone out of it just because it would mean a catastrophe worse the present.

Besides all that the euro's fall was arrested Thursday in the U.S. session, and began to catch up on par with other leading currencies.

Friday's meeting operating on the European stock markets higher, with moderate gains, with the Dow Jones index futures recovered their losses on Wednesday.

As for the other currencies, the pound was strengthened by a retail sales data in Britain is much higher than expected, while the yen continues its downward trend, with the U.S. economic recovery for investors from currency refuge.

Particularly in the United States is expected to publish the retail inflation index of 8:30 Eastern, which could show an increase of 0.3% in January. Also be known, issued by the Conference Board leading indicators indicator which would have a positive tone for the fourth consecutive month, highlights the progress of the world's largest economy.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook, February 17, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U.S. Dollar pair, yesterday broke its downtrend line short term due to rumors of a move by the ECB in an exchange of Greek bonds. Investors appear on guard and are awaiting further news and fundamental news, especially from Europe on the issue of Greek rescue plan.

On a technical level, the pair is trading right now at 1.5820, is backing its maximum yesterday, if the trend continues, we expect a reversal to the fractal 1.5700 and buy at this level with a medium term objective 1.60 the key psychological level.

Indicators of MCD, and range, show levels of resistance and overbought.

instaforex.com/sp/forex_analysis/50890/




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 17, 2012 (weekly Strategy)






AUD/USD



The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair remains bullish trend line for the moment we expect to continue rising.
On the other hand, only a definitive break its line of short-term trend. and a close below this will be the beginning of a sequence bass.

We therefore recommend selling only if the pair breaks its trendline, targeting 1.0480 medium term and as our ultimate goal to 1.0280 dollars per Australian.

The breakpoint will be above the maximum monthly.

The MCD indicator shows overbought levels and depletion of upward force.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for February 20, 2012






General situation:
Despite the quite successful start, on February 20 the USD/CHF pair has lost positions gained and moved down to the lower border of Ichimoku Cloud, forming the “dead cross”. The current signal for BUY-deals is confirmed but weak as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price has failed to overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the first support level 0.9099 is considered as target for downside movement. Nevertheless, as long as the Ichimoku Cloud has not been overcome, it is recommended to refrain from entering the market. In case this level has been overcome, the second support level 0.8998, which is considered as new target for descending movement, will be available. The downward movement continues as long as the price is located below the Kijun-Sen (0.9215). While bearish trading it is recommended to set Stop Loss higher than Kijun-Sen. In case the price goes higher than this line, the signal for SELL-deals will weaken. Therefore, the further descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span remains lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for SELL-deals and indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands shows the beginning of downside trend, lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current descending movement and enabling short positions. Nevertheless, it is recommended to enter the market only when the signal for BUY-deals has been strengthened.

Trading recommendations:
As to CHF operations it is recommended to consider SELL-deals with first target seen at the 0.9099 level but only after the breakdown of the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been overcome, the next target for short positions will be seen at the 0.8998 level. Stop Loss is to be placed higher than 0.9215. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD must indicate descending movement. With profit of 50-60 pips Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take Profit can be set higher than target levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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Fundamental Analysis For February 22, 2012




No significant changes are taking place on Wednesday the European session, the currency market.

Except for the euro, which is still without a clear trend, the dollar is taking some strength against other currencies leaders, and stand out in this context its growth against the yen, which fell from 80 units in the last hour minimum value since mid- July.

Of course, the weak yen leads to lose ground against the euro too, which is still slightly firmer against the dollar and pound sterling to a lesser extent, as the low, who has been the same since the beginning of European session.

It is also remarkable the strength that has an ounce of gold, and oil, not yet filled a gap left in the Asian session on Monday, so it does not provide for $ 105.00, but no one is stronger.

At this point there is a growing concern in Europe. It is known dependence of the old continent with imports of oil which do not produce, and recently suspended as a measure of pressure, its commercial ties with Iran.

It is naive to believe that Europe will run out of oil, just because Iran did not send it, and that Iran will stop selling oil. These maneuvers are always speculative, and ultimately seek to increase the price of oil is too old.

For Europe to get the same oil from Iran, just enough that it will sell the crude to a country outside Europe and that Europe will not buy another country, other costs of course. If that was the concern should not be.

Gold also strengthens in these times, and positions with the upward trend in short-term charts, and search the area at $ 1,800. It is known that one ounce not long to go 20 or $ 30, and any shocking news could have that effect these days, something tumultuous markets.

No major reports to be published, the most relevant and was released in Europe, and certainly has not been encouraging, with European exchanges operate down to another day and the Dow Jones index futures to move away, down from the heights Monday, the rest of the day presented with good business opportunities in the short term charts.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.3320 February 22, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)






EUR/USD


The Euro - U.S. Dollar pair, remains without a definite trend, and forming a figure reversal technique, if we see in the picture, the gap opening earlier this week, has not yet been covered. So, that adds strength to our bearish outlook. According to the table pivots, the euro - dollar, is trading below the first resitencia weekly, so we think we could go back at least to 1.3130 or more down to 1.3050.

Therefore, we recommend selling at current price levels, and with a stop loss, a little above the monthly maximum around 1.3320, and our ultimate goal in this bearish strategy, we will place on the 61.8% retracement of fibinacci.

MCD indicator. is in a neutral point showing bearish signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 22, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD


The Australian dollar - U.S. Dollar pair, continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity. We can not discard the possible pullback, which can take place, as almost always happens when a pair breaks its trendline.

Therefore, we can enter selling, only if the pair closes below 1.0610 or we can wait for the pullback expected to happen, and sell the bearish sequence.


The Range Indicator shows overbought signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis For February 23, 2012




Although from the European Commission have been planted gloomy forecasts about the future that awaits many countries of the old continent this year, the euro reached its annual maximum in the beginning of the session.

The occasion is the publication of the German IFO survey, which gathers more than 7000 executives on the business climate in that country, which in turn turns into an index. This value was 109.7 points today, above expectations, and the highest since last July.

This demonstrates the radically different picture presented by members of the eurozone. While Germany is doing better and better, and soon will affect the exchange rate of the euro, countries that follow in economic power began to falter and suffer cuts ratings on their debt, high unemployment rates, bewilderment. And the European periphery is the most suffering, with Greece as a prime example: 5 years of recession, a default disguised in euphemisms and money last minute, and a host of difficulties facing most basic expenses.

But Germany alone is able to support a currency that was responsible for design, build and operate, and that is what you see at these times. Beyond that, as mentioned several times in recent days, the euro has more to lose than to win in the near future, the strength of the first European power is reflected in movements like today.

The rest of the euro currency has followed a more attenuated. The franc, mirror of the single currency was the biggest beneficiary, with the highest since Nov. 14 so far. British pound also managed to take hold above 1.57, and yen positions seems to recover very slowly after the sharp decline in recent days.

The currencies linked to commodities also followed the upward trend, with the Canadian dollar once again breaking the deadlock before the dollar and the Australian aussie following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, looking for $ 1800 .

Thursday's U.S. session will bring important as data requests per week of unemployment, at 8:30 Eastern, and oil inventories at 10:30.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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GBP/USD Sell Below Trendline, February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD

The British pound - U. S. Dollar pair, has recovered from the sharp drop that was yesterday, the level of 1.5640. has proved to be strong support, because in four previous sessions the pair has not been able to break this level. the 50-day moving average,supports the strong level of support.

As we can see the yellow box, shows that the pound has been stagnated at range of 230 pips and is trading below its downtrend line short term.

Therefore recommend you sell below the trend line and the stop loss above the second resistance weekly, our short-term goal, it is placed right in the second weekly support around 1.5560 dollars per pound.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook, For February 23, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD

The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, following an ounce of gold, which again is very strong, trading at 1.0703 and continuous in the range of 200 pips, as we noted in the yellow box, and showing signs of a possible change in trend and a fall with greater intensity.

As we see in the graph the autraliano, is preparing a pullback, and entering an area of �‹�‹strong resistance, so we recommend waiting for the daily close, to sell. Believe that all this sharp rise the pair must correct at least to the level of 1.0280 U.S. dollars per Australian dollar.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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Fundamental Analysis for February 28, 2012




As Greek default continues to be the object of voting and agreements due to the need of new loan, the rating agencies make attempts no to touch upon its fall.

This game is dangerous as it combines the lack of political will and the veracity of the rating that worsens the credit situation of a country whose poverty is increasing and continuous and reveals the results.

One may wonder how many votes and approval by large majorities are needed to solve this problem. If these votes were given by Germany, no one would doubt them.

The rhythm of stock markets move is influenced by the timid European governments and the fact that their contributors won and lost assets held in incessantly.

While Monday was an inappropriate day, the Tuesday’s European session showed the decrease of the major indexes including the modest losses of the old continent that remained almost unchanged compared to the day before.

The coins follow the same pattern of movement, and most of them are still in very narrow price range, although today they are (at least the European currencies) in a slight short-term uptrend, which could be consolidated during the American session.

These steps were followed by the Canadian dollar, which again strengthened the hand of oil, below the Monday’s high and the Australian dollar, which remained the gold also very strong.

The current data including the durable goods orders, was released at 8:30 Eastern. The key report and the consumer confidence index issued by the Conference Board were released at 10:00 (both in the U.S).

Germany rate of retail inflation is expected to appear soon, though it is necessary to consider that the schedule is not confirmed yet due to the flexibility of the European Central Bank. An increase in inflation in Germany naturally affects the economy and the whole Europe.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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GBP/USD Wave Analysis for February 28, 2012






Wave marking analysis:

After the yesterday’s repulse from the level of the figure 59 that took place during the Pacific session, the GBP/USD pair had lost over 100 pips by the end of the day. The inner wave structure of the ascending part of the trend that was formed on Friday does not seem to be very convincing. This enables the Pound to resume the growth to the targets located near the point 1.5930. At the same time, as it has been mentioned before, the 2nd wave (or the wave B) is likely to transform in more complicated corrective structure which, in turn, is expected to acquire the properties of diagonal triangle.

Targets for the variant with the wave 2 or B (in case it is complicated):
1.5662 – 38.2% according to Fibonacci
1.5581 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave 3 or C:
1.5933 – 261.8% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The formation of the ascending part of the trend within the wave 3 (or wave C) with targets seen at the 1.5933 (equal to 261.8% of Fibonacci) is very likely to resume. The continuous correction is considered as negative factor for the uprising part of the trend. Though it is possible that the ascending part of the trend will turn downwards, the Friday’s movement stimulated the formation of the uprising part of the trend. The renewal of the high of the wave 1 (or wave A) will be confirmed by the formation of the wave 3 (or wave C) indicating the further growth of the pair.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook for February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD



The Australian dollar - U. S. Dollar pair, as well as the ounce of gold, once again is very strong, The aussie is trading at level 1.0772 and continuous the movement within the range of 200 pips, as it is evident in the yellow box. It provides the signs that the trend is likely to change and acquire the greater intensity.



As it is indicated on the chart, the Australian dollar is in the stage of stagnation though we believe that it will remain there for a short time. Therefore, we recommend sell-deals around the weekly R_1 at 1.0800 level. In case of a pullback sell-deals on weekly R_2 1.0920 with targets seen at the support level 1.0484 are recommended.
On the other hand, the range indicator is providing the overbuy signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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GBP/USD Buy Above Pivot Point, February 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






GBP/USD



The GDP /USD pair has failed to close the Friday’s deals above its 200 day moving average. This is the third attempt made by the pair. Given that the pair remains above the weekly pivot point, the upward trend is likely to continue. And the moving average of 200 periods is passed through, the psychological level 1.6060 will be considered as next target.



It is necessary to be cautious with bullish positions. The situation will probably change abruptly and it is possible that the pair will move within a correction to the area 1.5712 S_1. The best position for setting Stop-loss is below the weekly pivot point around 1.5810.

The Momentum indicator provides bullish signals.





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

GBP/USD Double Strategy for March 06, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






The GBP / USD pair

The GBP/USD pair is already at February 24 low and may continue its downward movement to the next weekly support. (W_S2) 1.5685.

On the chart we can see that the pair has found support at 1.5761 corresponding to the first support weekly (W_S1) and the moving average of 200 periods. At this level we can use 2 strategies. 1) If this support level is not broken, we can make BUY-deals with target seen at 1.5950.

On the other hand, if the pair closes below 1.5740, the SELL-deals at the 1.5530 level are recommended.


MCD indicator and Momentum are showing the signs of a possible rebound.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for March 6, 2012





Wave marking analysis:
Having completed during the yesterday’s operations the corrective level 61.8% and reached the lower limit of the uprising channel, the EUR/USD pair rebounded from the reached low (1.3160). Thus, the price has managed to complete the formation of the full wave structure of the supposed downside correction within A, B and C waves. If that proves to be so, then the ascending movement is likely to be continued, corresponding to the quotation growth in the area of the figure 35. At the same time, the price is still able to resume the descending movement and the wave 3 (or wave C) will acquire the more complicated and continuous structure.

Targets for the descending movement within the wave C:
1.3149 – 100.0% according to Fibonacci
1.3098 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the corrective waves against the current downside part of the trend:
1.3340 – the supposed top of the wave 2 (or wave B)

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the ascending part of the trend completed its formation; the new downward part of the trend began its development, though it is quite complicated to define which wave is presently developing. Thus, it is necessary to wait and consider the situation. The points 1.3149 and 1.3098 are considered as downside targets for the current descending movement, corresponding to 127.2% of Fibonacci. The corrective wave group (A-B-C waves) is likely to be completed in the nearest future followed by a new upward impulse.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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AUD/USD Bearish Outlook for March 6, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






AUD/USD



The AUD/USD pair, was devalued in this hour because the Reserve Bank of Australia could cut the exchange rate at its next meeting.

This movement of the Aussie was at least expected, with the price of gold ounce at the minimum of several days. We had already mentioned in previous analysis that there has to be a correction. http://instaforex/forex_analysis/52238/

At this point, given that the indicator and MCD is showing bearish exhaustion rate, we expect to stop at W_S2 and there will be a rebound to the weekly pivot line 1.07

Therefore I recommend you to sell the pair at the level of resistance targeted towards 1.0430, we can add that the last movement caused the pair to form a reversal pattern targeted to 1.0400

The range indicator is showing a deeper falling.










Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for March 6, 2012






General picture:

On March 6 the USD/CHF pair followed the tendency of euro and has also passed though the Ichimoku cloud confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and the relevance of the long positions. The current signal is considered as strong and confirmed, as Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price is higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. Therefore, the target for the ascending movement is seen at the first resistance level 0.9214. In case this level is passed through, the new target for the uprising movement – the second resistance level 0.9289 – will be available. The upward movement remains the same as long as the price is higher than the Kijun-Sen (0.9050). When bullish trading below this line it is recommended to set Stop Loss. The same is for the case, when the price goes lower than this line, as the signal for BUY-deals will weaken and the further development of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for BUY-deals and indicating the bullish mood of the USD/CHF pair. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the upward movement; the lines are expanded and directed upwards. Thus, it is recommended to consider the long positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the corrective movements showing the current corrective mood. Therefore it is better to refrain from opening the long positions. In case the indicator reverses to upwards, this can be considered a sign for opening the long positions.

Trading recommendations:

As to the USD/CHF market, it is recommended to open the long positions with target seen at the 0.9214 level. When this level is passed through, the target level for BUY-deals will be located in the point 0.9289. Stop Loss is to be placed lower than 0.9050. In case this line increases, the Stop Loss is to be placed after it. It is recommended to open the orders in case the MACD direction reverses to upwards. With 50-60 pips profitability it is possible to place Stop Loss in the zero area. Take Profit orders can be set a bit lower than the target levels.
Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:

Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.






Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis for March 8, 2012



For two days we expected the publication of the most important news of the week, and perhaps of the month, with respect to currency.
Within minutes the Bank of England will announce its monetary policy for the current month, with no substantial changes are expected. Interest rates remain at record low 0.5%, although Governor Mervyn King emphasizes their importance. The data concerning the causes of this decision and the procedure of voting will be released within two weeks.
In the meanwhile, at 7:45 Eastern, the European Central Bank will also announce its benchmark interest rate, which will remain unchanged at 1%. At 8:30 the subsequent press conference was held by Chairman Draghi in order to clarify the steps aimed at stimulating the economy of the countries in trouble.
This news was released amid the quarrels in Greece, where 60.6% of the creditors agreed to start the proposed debt-restructuring until the Thursday afternoon. If the proposal is accepted by desired 70%, then, according to the Greek legislation that regulate the debt swap, the other 30% are obliged to accept the agreement as well.
Thursday’s news from Greece changed the general picture of the European session. The bags are growing in good shape, and the coins are moving within an upward trend against the dollar.
This fact explains the movement of the euro, which again exceeded 1.32; the pound sterling failed to break the 1.58 level; and currencies linked to commodities, the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar, have partially reversed its losses for the last two days.
On the other hand, at 8:30 the weekly unemployment requests are expected to be released. This indicator has been showing declining figures, outstanding asset in economy that, in turn, creates each month more jobs than last month.
Indeed, in February the ADP survey showed the creation of 216 jobs in private sector. This figure could match or approach the official data published by the Labor Department on Friday morning.
Another crucial point is the announcement concerning the monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. While the Canadian dollar has not weakened against the dollar, it is not likely to remain at current positions for a long time. The loonie is expected to decline to the area of 1.03 / 4 in the few weeks. Nevertheless, its decline depends on the behavior of the oil.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012[/img]




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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for March 8, 2012





Wave marking analysis:
Yesterday’s trading operations did not affect much the formed wave picture of the EUR/USD pair. The price changes took place within the range 1.3100-1.3160. Therefore, we can assume that the pair began the formation of the wave B within the scenario of the further development of the downside correction. If that proves to be so, then in the course of development of the wave B the price is likely to return to the limits of the ascending channel. This will enable the continuation of the descending movement to the level of the figure 30. At the same time, according to the several indicators, the euro is still able to resume the growth to the February’s highs.



Targets for the descending movement within the wave A (If not completed):
1.3098 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
1.3035 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave B:
1.3173 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
1.3233 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the new descending part of the trend is developing though it is quite complicated to define exactly, which wave has been forming. Perhaps, this is the wave A of the prospect continuous downside correction. The current descending movement has downside targets 1.3098 and 1.3035 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci. The wave A is likely to complete its formation (or has already completed) beginning a new ascending movement within the wave B with targets 1.3173 and 1.3233 which is equal to 61.8% and 50.0% of Fibonacci.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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GBP/USD Bullish Outlook for March 8, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






The GBP/USD pair

The GBP is likly to continue the bullish trend against the dollar. Given the downward pressure is not completed yet, we believe that the next support level 1.5735 will be crucial for the continuation of the trend. In case this level is broken, cthe pair will decline to the point 1.5569.

Therefore, we recommend Buy-deals above the bullish channel around 1.5735 with Stop loss below the 1.5685 weekly support level. The short-term goal is seen at 1.5950 level.

MCD Indicator is in mixed zone and showing bullish signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.3095 for March 8, 2012






The EUR/USD pair

The EUR / USD pair has rebounced from the last month's low, finding a support in the W_S1, having rebounded to the level 1.3236. Considering that this position is crucial for the future movement of the euro, we believe that if the level of 1.3100 remains unbroken, the euro will reach the 1.3394 level, i.e. the area of the first weekly resistance and the fractal formed in 1.3403

Therefore, we recommend Buy-positions in the correction of this upward sequence at 1.3144 (fractal) with a target at 1.3390 level. The Stop Loss is recommended below 1.3095 weekly support.

MCD and Range Indicator show a positive divergence and a stronger bullish movement.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]









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USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for Mach 8, 2012






General situation:
Analyzing the USD/JPY pair exchange rate for March 8 we can define exactly the reasons that forced the Ichimoku to provide the signal for Buy-deals. This signal is considered as weak and confirmed as Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price remains higher than the Ichimoku Cloud. Thus, the downside targets are seen at the second support level 79.37, though it is recommended to begin trading when the price will be fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. In case this resistance level is passed though, the next target will be seen at the third resistance level 78.73. The ascending movement remains the same, as long as the price is located higher than the Kijun-Sen (81.20). In case the price is located higher than this point, the further elaboration of the signal for Sell-deals will be questioned resulting in possible reversal of price to upwards. Chinkou Span is located lower than the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood at the USD/JPY market. Bollinger Bands indicates the descending movement, lines are expanded and directed downwards, that is why Sell-orders are considered relevant. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current upward movement. That is the reason why the indicator prevents from entering the market with short positions. Therefore, it is necessary to wait when the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud.

Trading recommendations:
As to USD/JPY pair market, it is recommended to consider the Sell-positions with target seen at the level 79.37. In case this level is passed through, the next target will be seen at the level 78.73. Stop Loss is to be placed above the point 81.20. When opening the short positions, MACD is expected to indicate the downside movement. When the price passes 30-40 pips to the required side, the Stop Loss can be placed to a non-loss area. Take profits can be placed at levels 79.45 and 78.80.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.





Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

GBP/USD Technical Pattern for March 9, 2012 (Weekly Strategy)





GBP/USD



The GBP/USD pair is thinking about what technical pattern to choose and without definite trend, the moving average of 200 periods (blue) is above the current price quote, about 1.5877, if the pair closes the day and the week above this level, we recommend buying until the next resistance of 1.6069 (W_R2) as the final objective.
Furthermore, a close below 1.5720 can denote enter sell-positions until the next support, 1.5569.(W_S3)
The Range indicator and Momentum is showing bearish signals and neutral divergence.






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook for March 09, 2012 (Daily Strategy)






EUR/USD



The EUR / USD pair is in downward trend in view of the fundamental data to be published, we believe it to continue the downward trend for the rest of the American session.
The next support at 1.3150 and 1.3125, the latter coincides with the line of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. And finally, the channel long-term uptrend.
A close below these support levels invalidate our bullish outlook of the pair. Therefore, we recommend buying at levels of supports already mentioned, the stop loss is very tight below the second weekly support around 1.3095, and our partial goal, we will place at 1.3450 and 1.3660 our final objective,
The MCD indicator, shows bearish signal and range indicator shows the long-term trend as a bullish signal.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis for March 14, 2012



The Federal Reserve left the interest rate unchanged, as expected, and confirmed its intention not to alter it until 2014 without specifying a precise date. The move is in line with expectations, as well as the continuity of the so-called operation Twist.
However, there are other thoughts that can be taken as useful from the FOMC statement. The announcement refers to a temporary increase in inflation arising from oil prices, but dismisses that this will be maintained over time. This suggests that the Feds see the low oil prices in future, which would result in a further devaluation of currencies linked to it such as the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso.
There were no other important news in the Feds statement, and currency movements at the time of its publication gave strength to the dollar.
On the other hand, Wall Street shines again as in its best days. U.S. stock indexes fly, stocks beat records, and their prices are top financial newspapers, which echo the good climate that exists in the United States.
The Dow Jones on Tuesday had his best day in months, and closed at 13,177 points, while the Nasdaq closed at 3,039.88 points, gaining 1.85%. It seemed hardly possible a few months ago.
This strain produced in the global financial climate also leads to gold decline, which was used as a shelter asset for a long time. So in the final hours this brought to 1,650 dollars per ounce, taking the Aussie, which also broke, for the second time in recent days, the support of 1.05.
The data to follow during the American session on Wednesday is the inventory of U.S. oil, scheduled for 10:30 Eastern.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




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EUR/USD Bullish Outlook for March 14, 2012





The EUR/USD pair remains bearish, although 4-hour charts show some reversal patterns, which can give strength in the next hours, especially if it manages to break 1.3100, significant resistance.

The weekly support level of 1.3047, serves as a background for the decline of the pair. We believe that a close below 1.3047 gives place to the pair to fall to 1.2970, probably.

Therefore, we recommend buying above 1.3100, with a goal to 1.3365 U.S. dollars per euro. The range indicator is showing bullish signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012


The pivot points of the EUR /USD for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers possible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will help you to place the prospect Take profits or Stop losses. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be considered as a viable strategy for swing trading. The other way of working with this strategy is to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3429
Weekly - R2 = 1.3309
Weekly - R1 = 1.3242
Weekly Pivot = 1.3122
Weekly - S1 = 1.3055
Weekly - S2 = 1.2935
Weekly - S3 = 1.2868





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.4058
Monthly - R2 = 1.3772
Monthly - R1 = 1.3547
Monthly Pivot = 1.3261
Monthly - S1 = 1.3036
Monthly - S2 = 1.2750
Monthly - S3 = 1.2525









Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012

The pivot points of the GBP / USD for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers availible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will allow you to make decisions concerning the placement of Take profit or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a viable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.

_____WEEKLY____
Weekly - R3 = 1.6193
Weekly - R2 = 1.6027
Weekly - R1 = 1.5935
Weekly Pivot = 1.5769
Weekly - S1 = 1.5677
Weekly - S2 = 1.5511
Weekly - S3 = 1.5419







_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6411
Monthly - R2 = 1.6202
Monthly - R1 = 1.6061
Monthly Pivot = 1.5852
Monthly - S1 = 1.5711
Monthly - S2 = 1.5502
Monthly - S3 = 1.5361






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March19 - 23, 2012



The pivot points of the USD / JPY for this week are defined according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart indicates prospect points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will enable to define the best places for Take profits or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels serve as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may turn to be a viable strategy for swing trading. Otherwise it will be possible to use this strategy by opening long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.

____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 86.62
Weekly - R2 = 85.39
Weekly - R1 = 84.41
Weekly Pivot = 83.18
Weekly - S1 = 82.20
Weekly - S2 = 80.97
Weekly - S3 = 79.99





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.82
Monthly - R2 = 85.23
Monthly - R1 = 83.19
Monthly Pivot = 79.60
Monthly - S1 = 77.56
Monthly - S2 = 0.972
Monthly - S3 = 0.9605





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for March 19 - 23, 2012


The pivot points of the AUD / USD pair for this week are traced according to the following table shown below. The weekly chart offers possible points or areas of support or resitance levels. This chart will help you to place Take profits or Stop loss orders. These pivot levels are considered as a trading map, so you will know beforehand about the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the level R1 and long positions at the level S1. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a viable strategy for swing trading. The other way of working with this strategy is to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0824
Weekly - R2 = 1.0711
Weekly - R1 = 1.0650
Weekly Pivot = 1.0537
Weekly - S1 = 1.0476
Weekly - S2 = 1.0363
Weekly - S3 = 1.0302







_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1155
Monthly - R2 = 1.1006
Monthly - R1 = 1.0868
Monthly Pivot = 1.0719
Monthly - S1 = 1.0581
Monthly - S2 = 1.0432
Monthly - S3 = 1.0294





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for March 19, 2012





Wave marking analysis:
In the course of Friday’s trading operations the USD/JPY pair continued the formation of the inner wave structure of the prospect wave 4 in 3 (in 3 or C). Proceeding from the current wave structure we can assume that the pair is expected to test the level of the figure 84 and having defined the wave 5 in 3 will rapidly move to the lower limit of the ascending channel. At the same time it is possible that the Friday’s high is already considered as the high of the shortened wave 5. In any case the strong MACD divergence points at the necessity of more continuous and deeper correction.

Targets for the variant with the wave 5 in 3 in 3 or C:
83.84 and higher – 200.0% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with a range of downside corrective waves:
83.22 – 161.8% according to Fibonacci
82.65 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment the new ascending part of the trend continues its formation with the target seen at the level of figure 85 of the wave 3 or C. Proceeding from significantly shortened wave 2 or B we can define the force of the current trend and its ability for further elaboration that will result in the strengthening of American currency against Japanese, as we can actually see. The inner wave marking of the wave 3 or C indicates the possible continuation of the upward part of the trend with targets 83.84 and higher, corresponding to 200.0% of Fibonacci. The current correction within the wave 4 is not considered as too deep.






Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis for March 20, 2012



On Monday the dollar fell against other major currencies, with a strong momentum in relation to the euro and the pound sterling.



Wall Street shares continued to weakened, affected by the atmosphere of doubts of the European session.
However, a single fact could not change the direction of the market movement in a few hours. This time China was a protagonist.

The great Asian power, which affects all economic blocks, either due to its import or export, has entered this year into shadow of economic growth, prompting an immediate rise in the dollar on all fronts.

Thus, when the assumption concerning the possible decline in steel production, the hard currencies weakened, while exchange of "goods" was damaged even more, as China seemed to indicate the decline in commodity demand commodities that is taking place at the moment.

On the issue price is far more evident: the euro is back from yesterday’s highs after having failed to break down the 1.32 level. Meanwhile the British pound supported by the release on British inflation index standing in line with expectations, has fallen moderately without losing its short-term bullish direction.

But the Australian dollar is the first one to be affected by the news from its powerful neighbor, whose main customer is falling rapidly breaking the 1.05 point.

The Canadian dollar has not been that much affected, as the European currency was trading in narrow price ranges. The low oil prices, which appear to slow down at these times, have "stuck" loonie quotes on all fronts.

The low of the Dow Jones index futures appears to be more striking as it was traded at 13300 points within the strong bearish trend on the 4H chart. Maybe this time the beginning of significant profit-taking chip stocks, which are now at the 4 years high, will take place without interruption.

Meanwhile, the European stock markets operate with heavy losses, while on Tuesday's session averages they remained in the range between 1.2 and 1.7%. The major indexes are expected to move within downtrends in the nearest future.

The financial world now awaits the key U.S. data: building permits, announced at 8:30 EST. The construction sector indicated a very slow recovery in recent months; published figures do not exceed the highs of 2010. It should be noted that this data is a major concern of the Fed led by Ben Bernanke, who considers the primary building to leave behind once the economic crisis. Indeed, Bernanke will be presented in Washington from 12:45.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook for March 20, 2012 (Daily Strategy)





The AUD / USD pair is located at 1.0476 level i.e. around the first weekly support (W_S1). In the nearest future we expect that the pair will change its direction to downwards and continue the ascending movement towards the point 1.0800. Considering that the pair has broken its downtrend line and has made the corresponding pullback, and, if we look at the chart, the pair has formed a pattern of changed trend. Thus, it confirms our bullish outlook.

Therefore, we recommend Buy-deals at current levels of negotiation, pending an increase in the price of par. Our objective is placed in 1.0650 and our ultimate goal is the 1.0824 level. The Stop Loss is to be placed under the month's low.

The MACD indicator is in oversold area showing the bullish signals.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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EUR/USD Sell Fractal 1.3240 - for March 20, 2012






The EUR / USD pair that is trading at 1.3190 has moved lower after the breakdown of the short-term trend line. Before the continuation of the descending trend, we will observe the usual pullback to 1.3240 weekly resistance. If this level is broken, the pair is expected to reach the 1.3309 level that is considered as the next resistance level.

Therefore, we recommend Sell-deals at the weekly resistance level around 1.3240 with a short-term objective 1.3055.

The MACD indicator and range are showing the bearish signals.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




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USD/CHF Wave Analysis for March 20, 2012






Wave marking analysis:
In the course of yesterday’s trades the USD/CHF pair has managed to resume the downside movement. In the afternoon the pair tested the level of figure 91. The descending movement that has been developing since March 15 is presently looking as the completed 5-wave structure. If that proves to be so, then the price is likely to go upwards (or downwards) from the yesterday’s lows resulting in the formation of the wave B within the more continuous downside correction.



Targets for the variant with the wave A of the downside part of the trend:
0.9074 – 100.0% according to Fibonacci
0.9038 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the variant with the wave B:
0.9173 and higher – 23.6% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Friday’s downside movement has cancelled the option with the development of the ascending part of the trend. The whole wave marking is quite unstable and it is quite difficult to define, to which wave of the higher order the smaller waves belong. The current descending movement can be either within the 3-wave structure or can transform to the 5-wave structure with 0.9074 and 0.9038 as targets corresponding to 100.0% and 127.2% of Fibonacci.
Proceeding from this fact, it is necessary to be cautious while making deals, as there is no clear trend. The unexpected reversal of quotes to upwards can begin anytime. If this happens, it can be referred to the wave B of the descending part of the trend; the completed MACD convergence indicates the fact that this reversal is likely to take place soon.




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading recommendations for March 20, 2012






General situation:
On March 20 the USD/CHF pair continued the descending movement and fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. As e result, the signal for Sell-deals was strengthened enabling to open the short positions. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong as Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why the first support level 0.9084 is considered as a target for downside movements. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for the bullish trade – the second support level 0.9012 – will be available. The downward movement remains relevant as long as the price is above the Kjun-Sen (0.9210). While bearish trade above this line it is recommended to place Stop loss. When the price goes higher than this line, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further development of the movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals indicating the bearish mood of the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the descending movement; lines are expanding and directed downwards. Therefore, it is recommended to consider short positions. MACD is directed downwards and is considered as a signal of current descending movement. Thus, it is possible to open new selling orders and support the already opened orders. When the MACD turns to upwards, this will be the sign of correction.



Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider short positions with target seen at the 0.9084 level. When the price passes through this level, the next target for Sell-deals will be seen at the 0.9012 level. Stop loss is to be placed above the point 0.9210. In case this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. With 50-60 pips of profit Stop Loss can be placed to zero area. Take profits can be placed a little higher than the target levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.





Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

GBP/USD Consolidation for March 28, 2012 (Daily Strategy)





The GBP/USD pair trades in a downward trend on 4H chart due to the announcement that the UK GDP fell again in the fourth quarter of 2011. The UK financial stability remains highly uncertain. The European debt problems will continue to exert pressure on the British economy.
Considering the technical levels, the pound is approaching the bullish channel near the weekly pivot point; if there is a break of this trend line, it will change the scene for the next session. Moreover, a rebound above the weekly PPV around 1.5853 would be a good point to buy with targets at 1.6000
The MACD indicator is in oversold area and is showing possible consolidation.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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EUR/USD Sell Bellow 1.3300 - March 28, 2012






The EUR / USD pair is showing slightly bullish behaviour although bearish correction is possible only if it closes below 1.3300.
According to the table Fractals, the euro has found good support at 1.3305.
If there is a pullback we recommend selling at 1.3390 and if the price continues downwards we recommend selling below 1.3300 with targets at weekly pivot point - 1.3230
Range Oscillator is in overbought area and is showing a possible bearish correction.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 02 - 06, 2012



The pivots points chart for the EUR / USD pair for this week are placed in accordance with highs and lows and the weekly price close of the pair. This chart will enable you to place Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can be considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. In particular it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3614
Weekly - R2 = 1.3500
Weekly - R1 = 1.3420
Weekly Pivot = 1.3306
Weekly - S1 = 1.3226
Weekly - S2 = 1.3112
Weekly - S3 = 1.3032




____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3865
Monthly - R2 = 1.3625
Monthly - R1 = 1.3483
Monthly Pivot = 1.3243
Monthly - S1 = 1.3101
Monthly - S2 = 1.2861
Monthly - S3 = 1.2719





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 02 - 06, 2012


The pivot points chart for the GBP / USD pair for this week indicates that pivot points are set according to the weekly highs and lows of the pair as well as the close price. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can serve as a trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a good strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. Pariculary it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.

____WEEKLY_____

Weekly - R3 = 1.6335
Weekly - R2 = 1.6186
Weekly - R1 = 1.6100
Weekly Pivot = 1.5951
Weekly - S1 = 1.5865
Weekly - S2 = 1.5716
Weekly - S3 = 1.5630




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6601
Monthly - R2 = 1.6318
Monthly - R1 = 1.6167
Monthly Pivot = 1.5884
Monthly - S1 = 1.5733
Monthly - S2 = 1.5450
Monthly - S3 = 1.5299






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 02 - 06, 2012



The pivot points chart for the AUD /USD pair for this week shows that pivot points are placed according to the maximum and minimum quotes and the weekly closure of the pair. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may appear to be a reasonable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0752
Weekly - R2 = 1.0655
Weekly - R1 = 1.0499
Weekly Pivot = 1.0402
Weekly - S1 = 1.0246
Weekly - S2 = 1.0149
Weekly - S3 = 0.9993




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1186
Monthly - R2 = 1.1001
Monthly - R1 = 1.0673
Monthly Pivot = 1.0488
Monthly - S1 = 1.0160
Monthly - S2 = 0.9975
Monthly - S3 = 0.9647




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 02 - 06, 2012


The weekly pivots chart for the USD / JPY indicates that pivot points are placed according to the maximum and minimum quotes and the weekly closure of the pair. This chart will enable to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of a trading map that will allow you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 85.10
Weekly - R2 = 84.24
Weekly - R1 = 83.55
Weekly Pivot = 82.69
Weekly - S1 = 82.00
Weekly - S2 = 81.14
Weekly - S3 = 80.45





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.08
Monthly - R2 = 85.13
Monthly - R1 = 84.49
Monthly Pivot = 82.54
Monthly - S1 = 80.90
Monthly - S2 = 78.95
Monthly - S3 = 77.31






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]









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EUR/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 2, 2012






General situation:
Analyzing the Forex market on April 2 we can see that in course of yesterday’s trades the rate remained in sideways channel restricted by Bollinger Bands. Therefore, it is recommended to refrain from trading. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed and strong, as Chinkou Span is above the price chart and the price is higher than Ichimoku Cloud. At the moment the target for ascending movement is the first resistance level 1.3420 though it is recommended to begin bullish trading only when Bollinger Bands begin their extension to upwards. In case the first target level has been overcome, the next target will be seen at the second resistance level 1.3500. the uprising movement remains relevant as long as the price is higher than Kijun-Sen (1,3320). If the price is fixed below this line, this will indicate the weakening of the sellers signals and the further development of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bullish mood of traders. Bollinger Bands indicates the continuation of the sideways movement, lines are not expanding and directed sideways. Thus, in general it is recommended to stay away from the market until the flat movement is over. MACD is declining showing the current descending price movement. Therefore, you cannot open long positions at the moment as Bollinger Bands confirms it.



Trading recommendations:
On the EUR/USD market it is recommended to consider bullish trades with 1.3420 seen as target but only when Bollinger Bands goes upwards. If bullish mood continues and this level is passed through, it will be possible to continue Buy-deals with target seen at level 1.3500. stop Loss is to be placed below 1.332 and as this line goes higher, Stop Loss level can be placed upwards as well. With 50-60 pips of profit Stop Loss san be placed into non-loss area. While opening long positions MACD is to be directed upwards. Take Profits are to be placed a bit lower than target levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

If my articles are interesting and useful to you, you can vote for me in Analyst of the Year contest




Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

EUR/USD: Sell Bellow 1.3405 - Fractal Analysis for April 03, 2012 2012-04-03





EUR / USD has entered a zone which seems not to be exceeded - 1.34, but without yielding firm of 1.32, only data for the next few days concerning the ECB's monetary policy and employment in the United States appear to be able to give a faster rate.
From a technical point of view we can notice the formation of a fractal 1.3324, if the sequence continues downward, we recommend buying at 1.3245 level which is the lowest fractal zone, and near 1.3220 – a weekly support, or if the euro increases your quote, then we can sell during the next fractal pullback from 1.3405 with targets at 1.3230.
The range indicator shows that the euro is overbought.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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AUD/USD Under Pressure - April 03, 2012 (Daily Strategy)








The AUD / USD trend remains bearish if viewed on the monthly charts, which can lead to the BRA cutting the interest rate.
If we consider technical levels, here the Aussie remains above 1.0246, which is difficult to be overcome, a break below this level could widen the fall to 1.00
We therefore recommend selling below the downtrend line to 1.0246 weekly support and ultimate goal to 1.0149 (W_S2)
The MACD is in negative zone, and maintaining a sell signal.




Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

Fundamental Analysis, for April 05, 2012



The dollar remains in its upward path on all fronts, while European stocks turn down operations in the session Thursday.

The euro broke the 1.31 area, amid a new climate of uncertainty about the debt crisis of Europe, whose main focus to Spain. But the rest of the coins of the old continent operate with short-term downtrends.

The Swiss franc came at this time to its lowest since March 16, at 0.9205, while the British pound falls as softer against the dollar. In the case of GBP / USD is still in effect an uptrend on the daily chart, which would only be impaired by break of 1.5765.

The situation is different from the crossing EUR / USD, in which the price broke a trendline on the weekly chart, which can trigger a downward movement much more pronounced in the near future. The aim of the low maximum is located in the area of �‹�‹1.2580.

In another vein, the Canadian dollar approaching parity again against the dollar, following the footsteps of oil, which fell again on Wednesday, although the weekly crude oil inventories showed less existence thereof in the previous period.

Australian dollar also fell to a low of 10 January, following the sharp downward correction experienced an ounce of gold. This is listed at $ 1622 at the time, bearish in the short term.

Already known monetary policy announcement by the Bank of England, who left unchanged, as expected, the reference interest rate, the agenda of the day report includes a set of data in Canada, within which stand building permits, unemployment rate and job creation in March.



Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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AUD/USD Buy above Fractal 1.0220 for April 05, 2012 (Daily Strategy)





The AUD / USD pair is likely to consolidate above the weekly support 1.0243 and above the fractal 1.0223 in two days. The aussie is still under the negative pressure due to the results of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia, that caused worries of many investors.

On a technical level we noticed a fractal formed in daily charts. This level is very strong because it is the last support of the uptrend. Its breakdown will drastically change the outlook of the pair.

Thus, we recommend Buy-deals at current levels,though it is necessary to operate with low leverage, as the downward pressure is still relevant.

The MACD indicator is in oversold area and it is possible to bounce the upward trend.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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EUR/USD Buy Above 1.30 - April 05, 2012








The EUR / USD pair has broken througn the 1.3112 weekly support due to uncertainty about the debt crisis of Europe with Spain in focus. As a result, the euro slided towards the level of the third week support 1.3032 (W_S3)

On technical level we can see that the euro is in a very strong support level, the 1.3032 and 1.3000 and as tomorrow is a holiday, we believe that will be consolidated at current levels.

We therefore recommend buying with a possible rebound towards 1.3226.

Else we can say that the formation of a reversal pattern, which has bearish implications with medium-term objective at level 1.2500, is likley to take place.

The range indicator and Momentum are in overbought area and a rebound is imminent.






Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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EUR/USD Wave Analysis for April 5, 2012






Wave marking analysis:
Resulting from yesterday’s trades the EUR/USD pair continued its development of the descending movement that has begun recently. By the end of the American session it has lost more than 120 pips. Proceeding from the inner dimension of the supposed 3rd wave of the current downside movement and elaboration of the target corresponding to the 1.3110 level, we can suggest that the reversal of quotes to upwards confirmed the fact that 3rd wave was completed. If that proves to be so, then, when the uprising correction within the prospect wave 4 is completed, the pair is expected to resume its decline towards the 1.3025 level or March low (1.3005).



Targets for the wave 3 in 1 or A:
1.3094 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
1.3048 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the wave 4 in 1 or A:
1.3148 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci
1.3192 – 50.0% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
The ascending part of the trend within wave 3 in 1 or A has targets 1.3094 and 1.3048 corresponding to 76.4% and 88.6% of Fibonacci. The breakout of the ascending channel also indicates the formation of the new part of the trend. The inner wave structure of the wave 1 or A implies the further descent, as presently the wave 3 in 1 or A is apparently being formed. Thus, the whole wave may be completed near the point 1.3100. As to the wave 4 in 1 or A, it can raise the pair towards 1.3148 and 1.3192 which is equal to 61.8% and 50.0% of Fibonacci




Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 5, 2012






General situation:
On April 5 the USD/CHF pair continued its ascending movement. Having reached the resistance level, the pair reversed to the benefit of Swiss currency, so this is the reason why we can see the correction. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed and strong, as Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. So presently the targets for uprising movement are seen at the resistance level 0.9184 that was previously reached by the price though has not been overcome by the bulls. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for bullish trade – the third resistance level 0.9231 – will be available. The uprising movement remains the same as long as price is higher the Kijun-Sen (0.9090). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. If the price goes lower than this line, the signal for Buy-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bullish mood on the USD/CHF market.
Bollinger Bands indicates the current uprising movement, lines are expended and directed upwards, that is why it is recommended to consider long positions. MACD has reversed to downside showing the current beginning of the correction that is the reason why this indicator does not allow to open orders for Buy-deals at the moment. But in case the MACD reverses to upwards, long positions will be relevant again.



Trading recommendations:
On USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider long positions with first targets seen at the 0.9184 level. When this level is passed through, the target for Buy-deals will be seen at the 0.9231 level. Stop Loss is to be placed below 0.9090 and if this line goes higher, Stop Loss can be placed after it. New long positions are recommended to be opened only when the MACD reverses to upwards. With 50-60 pips of profit it will be possible to place Stop Loss to the zero area. Take profits are to be placed a bit below the target levels (10-15 pips approximately).

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

If my articles are interesting and useful to you, you can vote for me in Analyst of the Year contest





Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 09 - 13, 2012



The pivot points chart for the GBP / USD pair for this week indicates that pivot points are set according to the weekly highs and lows of the pair as well as the close price. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can serve as a trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it can be a good strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. Pariculary it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.

____WEEKLY_____

Weekly - R3 = 1.6281
Weekly - R2 = 1.6171
Weekly - R1 = 1.6023
Weekly Pivot = 1.5913
Weekly - S1 = 1.5765
Weekly - S2 = 1.5655
Weekly - S3 = 1.5507


_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6601
Monthly - R2 = 1.6318
Monthly - R1 = 1.6167
Monthly Pivot = 1.5884
Monthly - S1 = 1.5733
Monthly - S2 = 1.5450
Monthly - S3 = 1.5299


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 09 - 13, 2012


The pivot points chart for the AUD /USD pair for this week shows that pivot points are placed according to the highs and lows of the pair and the weekly closure rice. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a reasonable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise by opening long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.

_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0658
Weekly - R2 = 1.0561
Weekly - R1 = 1.0436
Weekly Pivot = 1.0339
Weekly - S1 = 1.0214
Weekly - S2 = 1.0117
Weekly - S3 = 0.9992




_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1186
Monthly - R2 = 1.1001
Monthly - R1 = 1.0673
Monthly Pivot = 1.0488
Monthly - S1 = 1.0160
Monthly - S2 = 0.9975
Monthly - S3 = 0.9647


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 09 - 13, 2012



The weekly pivots chart for the USD / JPY indicate that pivot points are placed according to the maximum and minimum quotes and the weekly closure of the pair. This chart will enable to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of a trading map that will allow you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 84.83
Weekly - R2 = 84.06
Weekly - R1 = 82.84
Weekly Pivot = 82.07
Weekly - S1 = 80.85
Weekly - S2 = 80.08
Weekly - S3 = 78.86






____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.08
Monthly - R2 = 85.13
Monthly - R1 = 84.49
Monthly Pivot = 82.54
Monthly - S1 = 80.90
Monthly - S2 = 78.95
Monthly - S3 = 77.31


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 09 - 13, 2012



The pivots points chart for the EUR / USD pair for this week are placed in accordance with highs and lows and the weekly price close of the pair. This chart will enable you to place Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can be considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. In particular, it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3652
Weekly - R2 = 1.3516
Weekly - R1 = 1.3306
Weekly Pivot = 1.3170
Weekly - S1 = 1.2960
Weekly - S2 = 1.2824
Weekly - S3 = 1.2614




____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3865
Monthly - R2 = 1.3625
Monthly - R1 = 1.3483
Monthly Pivot = 1.3243
Monthly - S1 = 1.3101
Monthly - S2 = 1.2861
Monthly - S3 = 1.2719


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]









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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading recommendations for April 9, 2012






General picture:
On April 9 the USD/CHF pair continues the ascending movement due to the prolonged correction. Bollinger Bands are restricting though there is a still possibility of ascending movement. The current signal for Buy-deals is confirmed and strong as Chinkou Span is located above the price chart and the price has overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. Thus, the target for the uprising movement is seen at the first resistance level 0.9260. In case this level has been passed through, the new target for bullish trading – the second resistance level 0.9352. The ascending movement remains relevant as long as the price is located above the Kijun-Sen (0.9110). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. If the price goes below this line, the signal for Buy-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the ascending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bullish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands defines the current uprising movement, lines are restricting and directed upwards. That is the reason why it is better to consider long positions. MACD has reversed to downside indicating the current correction. Therefore the indicator prevents from opening new buyers orders. In case MACD reverse to upwards, long positions will be relevant again.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider long positions with first target seen at the 0.9260 level. If the price passes this level through, the level 0.9352 will be considered as target for Buy-deals. Stop Loss is to be placed below 0.9110 levels; in case this line goes upwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. New long positions are recommended only after the reversal of the MACD to upwards. With 50-60 pips of profit Stop Loss can be placed into the zero area. Take Profits can be placed a bit lower than target levels (10-15 pips approximately).

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.



Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.


Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

USD/JPY Wave Analysis for April 18, 2012




Wave marking analysis:
In course of yesterday’s trades the USD/JPY pair continued the slow rebound from the newly reached high 80.30. Therefore, we can suppose that the wave C of the whole descending correction developing since March 21 has completed the formation of its inner wave structure. If that is true, then the yesterday’s ascending movement will continue towards the point 81.50 or level of the figure 82. At the same time the wave 3 in C is likely to become more complicated and the price in turn will reach the point 79.00.

Targets for the option with continuation and further complication of the descending correction or its transformation into downside impulse movement:
79.91 – 127.2% according to Fibonacci



Targets for the option with the resumption or beginning of the new impulse upward movement:
80.97 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
81.27 – 61.8% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
At the moment it is quite possible to resume the formation of the ascending part of the trend with target seen in the area of figure 85. Presently we can see the descent within the wave 4 of the global ascending trend. The current correction has downside targets at level 76.91 which is equal to 127.2% according to Fibonacci. Every day the correction is getting more and more complicated and, therefore, there are not so many chances to resume the uprising part of the trend. If the quotes move below the point 80.50, it will be almost impossible to rise towards the point 85.00.


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 18, 2012








General situation:
On April 18, the USD/CHF pair remains within the Ichimoku Cloud resulting in formation of the signal for Sell-deals. At the same time it does not stimulate any trading strategy. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and weak, as Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has entered the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why the targets for downside movement are seen at the first support level 0.9042 though it is recommended to trade at this level only when the current signal has strengthened. In case this level has been passed through, the new target for bearish trading – the second support level 0.8993 – will be available. The downward movement remains the same as long as the price is lower than the Kijun-Sen line (0.9170). While bearish trading below this line it is recommended to place Stop Loss. If the price goes higher than this line, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for Sell-deals and indicating the bearish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the current sideways movement; lines are restricted and directed sideways that is the reason why it is better to refrain from opening any positions. MACD has reversed to upwards pointing at the current ascending movement of the price. Nevertheless, considering the general picture, the situation is not very favorable for trading.

Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market is recommended to open short positions with first target seen at the 0.9042 level but only when the price is fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud. When this level has been passed through, it is recommended to consider the 0.8993 level for Sell-deals. Stop Loss is to be placed above 0.9170 and if this line goes downwards, Stop Loss can be placed after it. While opening the short positions MACD is to be directed downwards. With 50-60 pips of profit, Stop Loss can be placed into the zero area. Take Profits can be placed a bit higher than the target levels (10-15 pips approximately). In general the situation for trading is considered as not positive.



Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

If my articles are interesting and useful to you, you can vote for me in Analyst of the Year contest.



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

EUR/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23-27, 2012


The pivots points chart for the EUR / USD pair for this week are placed in accordance with highs and lows and the weekly price close of the pair. This chart will enable you to place Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can be considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. In particular, it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.3529
Weekly - R2 = 1.3378
Weekly - R1 = 1.3297
Weekly Pivot = 1.3146
Weekly - S1 = 1.3065
Weekly - S2 = 1.2914
Weekly - S3 = 1.2833






____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 1.3865
Monthly - R2 = 1.3625
Monthly - R1 = 1.3483
Monthly Pivot = 1.3243
Monthly - S1 = 1.3101
Monthly - S2 = 1.2861
Monthly - S3 = 1.2719


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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GBP/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23-27, 2012




The pivot points chart for the GBP / USD pair for this week indicates that pivot points are set according to the weekly highs and lows of the pair as well as the close price. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These pivot levels can serve as a trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it can be a good strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used in other way. Pariculary it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.



____WEEKLY_____

Weekly - R3 = 1.6568
Weekly - R2 = 1.6358
Weekly - R1 = 1.6239
Weekly Pivot = 1.6029
Weekly - S1 = 1.5910
Weekly - S2 = 1.5700
Weekly - S3 = 1.5581





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.6601
Monthly - R2 = 1.6318
Monthly - R1 = 1.6167
Monthly Pivot = 1.5884
Monthly - S1 = 1.5733
Monthly - S2 = 1.5450
Monthly - S3 = 1.5299


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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AUD/USD Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23 - 27, 2012



The pivot points chart for the AUD /USD pair for this week shows that pivot points are placed according to the highs and lows of the pair and the weekly closure rice. This chart will enable you to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are considered as some sort of trading map allowing you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as a target, it may be a reasonable strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise by opening long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 seen as weekly targets or to the pivot point.



_____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 1.0542
Weekly - R2 = 1.0480
Weekly - R1 = 1.0429
Weekly Pivot = 1.0367
Weekly - S1 = 1.0316
Weekly - S2 = 1.0254
Weekly - S3 = 1.0203





_____MONTHLY____
Monthly - R3 = 1.1186
Monthly - R2 = 1.1001
Monthly - R1 = 1.0673
Monthly Pivot = 1.0488
Monthly - S1 = 1.0160
Monthly - S2 = 0.9975
Monthly - S3 = 0.9647


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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USD/JPY Weekly and Monthly Pivot Points for April 23 - 27, 2012




The weekly pivots chart for the USD / JPY indicate that pivot points are placed according to the maximum and minimum quotes and the weekly closure of the pair. This chart will enable to place Stop Take Profits or Stop Losses. These Pivot Levels are some sort of a trading map that will allow you to know beforehand the possible increases and declines of the pair.

Therefore, it is recommended to open the short positions at the R1 level and long positions at the S1 level. If the weekly pivot is considered as target, it may be a feasible strategy for swing trading. The strategy can be used otherwise: it is possible to open long positions in S2 positions, and short R2 weekly with S1 or R1 as seen weekly targets or to the pivot point.





____WEEKLY_____
Weekly - R3 = 83.57
Weekly - R2 = 82.67
Weekly - R1 = 82.09
Weekly Pivot = 81.19
Weekly - S1 = 80.61
Weekly - S2 = 79.71
Weekly - S3 = 79.13





____MONTHLY______
Monthly - R3 = 88.08
Monthly - R2 = 85.13
Monthly - R1 = 84.49
Monthly Pivot = 82.54
Monthly - S1 = 80.90
Monthly - S2 = 78.95
Monthly - S3 = 77.31





Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]









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USD/CHF Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 23, 2012




General situation:
On April 23 the USD/CHF pair has successfully left the sideways movement. The rate has fixed below the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands are expanding downwards. The current signal for Sell-deals is confirmed and strong, as the Chinkou Span is located below the price chart and the price is below the Ichimoku Cloud. That is the reason why targets for descending movement are seen at the first support level 0.9031. In case this level has been overcome, the new target for bearish trade – the second support level 0.8973 – will be available. The descending movement remains the same as long as the price is below the Kijun-Sen (0.9145). While bullish trading below this line it is recommended to place the Stop Loss. In case the price passes this line through, the signal for Sell-deals will weaken and the further elaboration of the descending movement will be questioned. Chinkou Span is located below the price chart confirming the current signal for bearish mood on the USD/CHF market. Bollinger Bands indicates the beginning of the descending movement; lines are expanded and directed downwards, so options with short positions are recommended. MACD has reversed to downwards, pointing at current downside movement of the price. Therefore, presently it is possible to remain short. If the indicator reverses to upwards, this will indicate the possible beginning of the correction.



Trading recommendations:
On the USD/CHF market it is recommended to consider short positions with first targets seen at the 0.9031 level. If the price passes this level through, the point 0. 8973 is to be considered as the next target. Stop Loss is to be placed above the point 0.9145 and, in case this line goes higher, it will be possible to place the Stop Loss after it. When the MACD reverses to upwards, it will be possible to reduce short positions manually. With 50-60 pips of profit, Stop Loss can be placed to the zero area. Take Profits are to be placed a bit higher than the target levels (10-15 pips approximately).

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

Analyst of the Year contest



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]

New Home Sales - Fundamental Analysis for April 24, 2012


On Tuesday the dollar has dropped on all fronts during the European session, while the European exchanges operate with

modest gains, recovering yesterday’s lows of its majors.

Even the Dow Jones index futures regained its in early U.S. session. The situation has proved to be favorable, as after the

opening of the NYSE the index regained more than 100 points lost on Monday.

As for the majors, the pound sterling heads a series of rises in hard currencies after reaching its highest level since

October 31. A number of economic data published in Britain in recent has not only revealed an improvement in the employment

and retail sales but also an increase in inflation, which can force the Bank of England to raise their rates interest. On

Wednesday the preliminary data on UK GDP for the first quarter will be published. This fact can leave behind the recession

of the British economy.

As for the euro, there is no breaking news. On Monday the European currency has decreased modestly after the resignation in

the middle of the Netherlands Government. But it was slowly moving the upward trend on the 4 hours charts waiting for key

data of the American session.
At 10:00 Eastern the data from the Conference Board on new home sales and consumer confidence is expected. These reports

are considered as the most relevant reports of the day.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012



[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]



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AUD/USD Bullish Outlook for April 24, 2012 (Daily Strategy)








The Australian dollar was traded at 1.0277 above the 1.0254 second support weekly. This is a strong support level, given

that this is the daily fractal of 1.0246 and W_S2 weekly. Both support levels are held by the Aussie.

Given that the indicators MACD and Momentum are showing bullish signals, recommend Buy-deals with objectives seen at the

recent weekly resistance 1.0542. A closure above 1.0316 will increase the chances for upward growth.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012

[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]






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GBP/USD Technical Correction for April 24, 2012 (Daily Strategy)









Data on retail sales released on Friday has influenced positively on the British Pound, as the volume of retail sales in

March increased by 1.8% compared to the growth forecast of 0.4%. Overcoming expectations .

On a technical level we can say that the pound is remaining within its upward trend, although the MACD indicators shows the

overbought. The levels 1.6180 and 1.6236 are the next resistances.

Given that the pair should give a correction technique, we recommend selling on the resistance levels of 1.6180 with

targets up to the 32.8% Fibonacci retracement.


Performed by Gerardo Porras, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]





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USD/JPY Wave Analysis for April 24, 2012









Wave marking analysis:
On Friday the USD/JPY pair has begun its descent that yesterday acquired additional dynamics. As a result, the price has

reached levels near figure 81. In case this descending movement develops according to the corrective scenario, then the

yesterdays low can be considered as the end of the wave A in 2 (or B). If that proves to be so, then, when the formation of

the wave B has been completed, the pair will continue the movement towards the point 80.80 or even 80.55. At the same time

the MACD divergence looks controversial, as its elaboration can lead to the fall of quotes below the minimum of April 16

(80.30).



Targets for the option with the wave 2 or B:
80.83 – 23.6% according to Fibonacci
80.55 – 11.4% according to Fibonacci

Targets for the option with the wave 3 or C:
82.02 – 76.4% according to Fibonacci
82.30 – 88.6% according to Fibonacci

General conclusions and trading recommendations:
Presently we can see that despite the formation of the ascending part of the trend, we cannot define properly, which part

of the trend has begun: whether this is a correction against the pair’s decline that took place in recent weeks or whether

this is the resumption of the global ascending trend. The inner wave marking of the current ascent of quotes point at 3-

wave structure. It is possible that the wave B (corrective) will be formed followed by the formation of the wave C

(impulse). Also the whole ascending structure is likely to be transformed into 5-wave one. That is why the pair is expected

to continue its downward movement towards 80.55 (wave 2 or B) and followed by the reversal towards the 82.30 level (wave 3

or C).


Performed by Alexander Dneprovskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012


[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]









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GBP/USD Technical Analysis and Trading Recommendations for April 24, 2012






General situation:
On April 24 the GBP/USD pair rate continued the ascending movement enabling the continuation of the upward movement of the

trend towards the first resistance level 1.6239. The correction has not begun yet. The current signal for Buy-deals is

confirmed and strong as the Chinkou Span is fixed above the price chart and the price has overcome the Ichimoku Cloud. At

the moment the target for ascending movement is seen at the first resistance level 1.6239. If the upward movement

continues, the point 1.6356 will be considered as the next target. The uprising movement remains the same as long as the

price is located above the Kijun-Sen line (1.6020). It is recommended to place the Stop Loss below this line while bullish

trade. In case the rate goes lower than this line, this will probably indicate that the elaboration of the signal for Buy-

deals. Chinkou Span is located above the price chart confirming the current signal for Buy-deals and indicating the bearish

mood on the GBP/USD market. Billinger Bands points at the ascending movement, lines are expanding and directed upwards,

that is the reason why it is recommended to consider long positions. MACD is directed downwards indicating the current

corrective movement though yesterday the rate did not significantly decline, so the indicator’s descent (the indicator’s

reversal to downwards) is irrelevant. The Stochastic can be used instead.



Trading recommendations:
At the moment on the GBP/USD market it is recommended to consider long positions with target seen at the 1.6239 level. In

case the first target has been overcome, the new target for bullish trade – the level 1.6356 will be available. Stop Loss

is to be placed below 1.6020 and as this line goes higher, the level for Stop Loss can be replaced. When the Stochastic

leaves the overbuy zone, it is better to reduce manually the positions. With 50-60 pips of profit for long positions, Stop

Loss is to be placed to the non-loss area. Take Profits should be placed a bit lower than the target levels, i.e. at 1.6230

and 1.6345 levels.

Apart from the technical picture it is necessary to consider the fundamental data and the time of its release.

Explanations to the picture:
Ichimoku Indicator:
Tenkan-Sen – red line
Kijun-Sen – blue line
Senkou Span A – light brown dotted line
Senkou Span B – light blue dotted line
Chinkou Span – green line
Senkou Span B – violet dotted line
Bollinger Bands:
3 yellow lines
MACD Indicator:
Red line and the histogram with white bars in the indicators window.

Analyst of the Year contest



Performed by Stanislav Polyanskiy, Analytical expert
InstaForex Companies Group © 2007-2012




[URL="http://instaforex.com/articles/"]More analysis - at instaforex.com[/URL]